The ISEPR Foundation presents the second issue of ‘Rating 2016’ - the rating of promising public politicians with an eye on State Duma elections-2016.
The study on the regular basis assesses the activity and effectiveness of public political figures, that are considered to be promising politicians for State Duma elections by districts or authority of which can have a decisive influence on the performance of political parties.
The new issue of the rating covers the period from late September till the middle of November, which is the first post-election political activity cycle. The initial sample of the November rating included more than 250 people representing federal and regional authorities. Out of which top 100 of the most promising politicians of November were chosen based on the expert polls and quantitative research.
Three leaders of the rating were: Elizaveta Glinka, the head of a charity fund Spravedlivaya Pomoshch (Fair Aid), Olga Batalina, the new head of State Duma Committee on Labour, Social Policy and Veteran Affairs and Alexander Brechalov. Secretary of the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation.
Also in TOP 10: Lyubov Dukhanina, member of the Civic Chamber; Ella Pamfilova, the Commissioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation; Andrei Isaev, new State Duma Vice-Speaker; Yaroslav Kuzminov, Rector at the University - Higher School of Economics and Moscow State Duma Deputy; writer Zakhar Prilepin; Alexander Kalinin, new head of OPORA ROSSII; Boris Titov, the Commissioner for Entrepreneurs’ rights in the Russian Federation. Another 35 federal and regional political figures significantly strengthened their positions and were considered by experts to be «On the rise».
Six «outsiders» of the second issue that according to rating’s experts are those who have seriously complicated their prospects of continuing their political career in 2016, they are: Kirov Oblast Legislative Assembly Deputy and Secretary of the regional branch of the party «United Russia» Vasiliy Suraev; ex-member of the Council of the Federation Vladimir Plotnikov; Sergei Mitrokhin, leader of the Yabloko political party; State Duma Deputy Dmitry Gudkov; Viktor Pavlenko, Mayor of Arkhangelsk; State Duma Deputy Nikolay Parshin. Another 11 politicians, according to experts, are «On the down grade» of activity and efficiency.
The main events of October-November that determined the list were:
• meeting of the President with the members of the Human Rights Council, active work of the human rights community to protect the social rights of the citizens and develop social volunteering;
• consideration of the Russian Federation budget draft for 2015-2017, resonant tax initiatives and the bill on «de-offshorization»;
• work of political figures with risks of social discontent in large regions;
• educational forum of All-Russia People’s Front in Penza Oblast and preparation of the All-Russia People’s Front «Action Forum-2»;
• conduct of the «zero readings» on bills of socio-economic nature by the Civic Chamber;
• completion of the regional electoral cycle and the suspension of many participants to choose public political activity.
The major changes in the November issue of «Rating-2016»:
1) TOP 100 was updated by 29 people. This scale of update is not typical for the everyday political life outside of the electoral cycle, but was expected in the first post-election period because many participants of the elections on September 14 lost their initiative (both regional politicians and State Duma Deputies that took part in regional elections).
2) The number of politicians with the positive quality of impact has sharply increased. The number of «outsiders» reduced from 10 to 6 people; 11 politicians remained «on the down grade» out of 20. On the contrary, the number of politicians «on the rise» have grown from 30 to 45. It is also connected to the ending of the electoral cycle and minimizing the activities of the election «losers».
3) The most entrenched position in the TOP 100 rating belongs to «public figures». Their representation increased by number (from 14 to 20), but especially by quality: 7 public figures at once were in the TOP 10, Elizaveta Glinka headed the November rating.
4) Due to the work of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on socially significant bills and with risks of social discontent in the regions, the quality of Parliament representation significantly improved in TOP 100 of November. In September there were 8 State Duma Deputies and members of the Council of the Federation among the politicians «on the rise», in November the number increased to 24. 53 active parliamentarians are in TOP 100.
5) The presence of the regional politicians quantitatively almost haven’t changed (21 politician), however, it significantly deteriorated in quality. Among 21 representatives of the regions only 1 remained among the «leaders», in total only 9 regional politicians remained among the politicians «on the rise». This is due to the fact that the brightest election participants from the regions couldn’t maintain the political initiative.
6) «Outsiders» category demonstrated its predictive value. 6 out of 10 «outsiders» of the September Rating actually did leave federal public politics. But in 2 cases partial restoration of the former positions was recorded, it was achieved due to the change in the content of their activity.
7) The number of experts increased from 14 to 25. Partners of the rating - Russian Public Opinion Research Center, Institute of the Modern Media, Experts magazine and Politanalitika.ru.
Full results, description of the methodology, the list of experts, comments on every participant of TOP 100, analytical article written by the ISEPR Foundation experts concerning the main trends of the period is available at Рейтинг2016.рф webpage, in a short form - on the webpage of Expert magazine.
Partners of the research project: